Creativity: a contradiction in times?

In a week where the advertising industry have been singing the praises of "ideas" and warning against an over reliance on metrics to get out of troubled waters, online publishing has announced a growth rate of 16% for 2009.

Is this just a continuation of the advertising industry in general's decendancy or something more remarkable. Media agencies have been chipping away at traditional advertising's throne ever since the conjoined twins were split in the early 80's.
The fact is that business attention is gained and secured by numbers and they should be a part of creative ideas. Together Everyone Achieves More! It seems the time is right for accountability and creativity to become business tools once again. As a single concept.

Taking the snip

Another unexpected growth industry in these pressing financial times. As the cheapest form of permanent birth control, more and more couples are resorting to vasectomies.
On a sociological level though we have to think seriously about the consequences of this though. Is this a form of economic castration?
Interestingly though, the trend is also linked to individual's expectations about long term economic prospects. If you don't feel secure in your job chances are you will be careful about expanding the family. This has been seen in the rise of economically motivated abortions. Will this become a new leading indicator for real economic confidence?

The sweet taste of comfort food.

Thanks Maria for this note. Along with cupcakes, it appears that sweets (or candy as the trans-atlantians call them) are doing really well. With some stores reporting an increase of 10% in January and February sales, others are looking to expand.
There are lots of theories as to why sweet things are being lapped up, and they all seem to hinge on the low cost of the sugar rush being an easily accessible soul soother when richer luxuries are out of reach.

Fresh breezes

Lovely snippet on CNN today! It seems nudist camps are experiencing a little boom. In these stressed out times it appears taking your clothes off makes you feel better. (I would go in to all the other puns used by CNN).
A bit concerning though is the link between socialism and nudism in other forums. It seems the rise in skin exposure signals alignment with other anti-capitalist values.

Setting sail on a rising tide!

More and more voices are pointing to the shift in the Baltic Dry Index. A great leading indicator of economic activity. Having bottomed out in December it started climbing again in the last two months.
This could mean that companies have flushed some excess capacity from the supply chain and are now again shifting goods. Whatever the reasons the fact is economic activity is on the rise. All in all, a great reason to feel the tide has turned!

Franchises doing well

It would appear that one form of business is doing well across the board: Franchises. From Dunkin Donuts to Brake King (the latter part of the overall auto repair boom), it seems that franchises are weathering the downturn better than other forms of business.

This is good news for both franchisors and franchisees. As more talent is released to the job market, people are looking for a quick way to get back into cash flow. A good franchise idea, addressing a basic need will be safer and easier to launch than an own business.
With the financial and marketing backing of a known business, the franchisee will also be able to get up to speed more effectively. It may be the best way to spread risk in these risky times!

Gone fishing!

Apologies for missing posts this week. You might think I had gone fishing. This wouldn't be odd in a recession. It seems along with the outdoor boom mentioned before, fishing is receiving a healthy boost as pastime.
Although the activity itself is cheep, the market for tackle is booming. This happened in 2001/2002 as well when it grew by 12%.

Amazing if you consider that sales for the category actually declined by 4.8% in the period 1996 to 2001. Once again it seems everything that expresses tried and true frugality is receiving a boost. I just wonder when the increase in fishing will bite into MacDonalds dizzying success! Same store sales increased 1.4% in a period where eating out is deemed a luxury. Seems the killer app for recession would be to combine fishing with MacDonalds.

The spirit of creation

Today I can whole heartedly recommend The Economist's report on Entrepreneurship. Amongst the basic points about how entrepreneurs like Gates and Jobs drove their companies out of the ashes of recession to dominate the world. The good news is that although the image of business has been tainted, the image of the entrepreneur shines brighter than ever. They are truely the global heroes enjoying a renaissance.

Burning the books!

I am sorry but I simply can't say it any better than The Hollywood Reporter: " Recession? What recession? There was no sign of a downturn at German media group Axel Springer, which reported its fifth consecutive year of record profit Wednesday, earning 571.1 million euros ($729 million) in 2008."

A strong portfolio including digital media lead to growth, compensating for a drop in newspapers and magazines.

Other reports also indicate that the German book market is showing signs of growth. Roughly translated Mr. Honnenfelder (ex head of DuMont publishing) said at the opening of the international book fair: "The international recession is not evident in the book market".
The rise in book sales is an interesting one though. Has the recession lead to more people buying books? Looking for something solid and firm to hold onto? That DIY CV builder feels so much better with a hard cover!

Dubai 2.0?

After all the doom and gloom about ex-pats leaving cars at the airport, it seems that there is still structural growth in Dubai! The engineering firm Drake & Scull have announced a growth in profits and an active desire for acquisitions.

They still see growth in Dubai of up to 25% above last year. Drake & Scull focus on plumbing and mechanical engineering, positioning them as a leading indicator to the construction industry.

Retail in rude health

After praising the health of Walmart yesterday, it appears that Kroger has also shown a strong recovery. Beating Wallstreet expectations lead to a good jump in their share price.

People are still shopping for groceries and the stores with the right mix for these times are benefiting. The interesting thing though is that Walmart was able to grow in both food and discretionary items!

Disruptive technology

OK, so today's good news is more of an emotional story. The US chocolate company Frutels have launched a great new product to help fight Acne, from the inside. The good news is: It is chocolate!!!

A good reminder that another disruptive technology that was launched during the last recession: Google.
These dark times offer a great opportunity to launch new products: lower costs, less noise and distracted competition. A good story will grow!

The sun is rising!

Now you have it, it is official, even Time magazine says recession is on its way OUT!
Helpfully they are pointing to the signs we should all have on our active desktops to confirm the sun is definately rising for the world economy. These include car sales rising, the discount rate developing market bonds and a few other things.

Personally I'll keep an eye on how long the queues at Starbucks are!

Consumer confidence?

Over the last week I have heard from various people about companies that advertise job vacancies very vigorously. Here is a story from Esther:

"Shopping for staff....
Last Saturday, at the Kaufland Shopping Centre Markt Schwaben, there was a loudspeaker announcement, announcing that they are looking for staff - if someone is interested, just go to the cashier and apply..."

MediaMarkt, Sparkasse and other retail outlets in Munich are also doing similar activities which seem far more pronounced than they would have been before the crisis (massive job posters on the subway walls?). Are companies cutting down on their advertising budgets and using personnel ads to drive awareness and consumer confidence? Is this a new wave of relationship marketing?

On a different note, those of you interested in how buying Tiramisu can help us out of the financial crises, you may want to pick up this month's edition of brand eins! Title story: "Good News"

Bra's get lift in downturn

Another great story of a inspirational company in the UK bucking the downturn trend. Michelle Mone built up her company after having left school aged 15, due to ill health. She came close to doubling profits last year year and looks set to grow again in 2009.

Innovating at the value end of the market has lead to lucrative contracts with major retailer Tesco.
By providing a "comfortable cleavage enhancing bra" she certainly capitalizes on a low cost way of looking good and feeling good in the downturn! Expanding through strategic allegiances in the route to market has solidified that success.

Growing margin in declining markets

Once again, thanks Jacques for this amazing story. The Financial Times Group reported a 13% rise in profits for the year 2008. The key driver of profits was an increase in subscription revenue. This was more than able to compensate for the decline in ad revenues.

You can argue that FT's content is particularly relevant in these times and that a subscription is worth more now that financial news becomes a lifeline rather than a nice to have. Fact is they achieved an increase in OP of 11% on an 8% increase on sales proving you don't have to burn the farm to save it. There is value in farming loyalty.

The new lipstick index?

Much has been made of the folklore that during the depression women bought lipstick to make them feel better. Marketers have looked at the sales of lipsticks and micro-luxuries ever since as an indicator of the general mood. The less lipstick sold, the better people must be feeling about themselves, and their prospects.

It seems that movies, at least in America have experienced a similar boon over the last six months.
As the International Herald Tribune reported, receipts are up nearly 18% this year (even as ticket prices have increased)! This was not true during the last downturns, where people economized on supposed discretionary expenses. It seems that Hollywood has smartened up to improve the offering to fall in line with the need for hope and a feel good factor. Escape is still good value!

Doing better by helping customers deal with bad times

Here is an interesting ray of light from a small firm in the USA. SCM is a small real estate company who posted a 40% growth in 2008. Keep in mind that troubled real estate assets are what started the black hole of the current financial crisis.

By providing better lender services they are able to help consumers navigate the tough market for finding loans and restructuring current commitments.


They have also used the current weakness of competitors to expand geographically

A great case of customer intimacy leading to differentiated services in a very, very, tough market!