7. Anticipation

The Costa in Derby's Westfield centre had a dishwashing incident today. The consequence was that all coffees had to be served in take-away cups. The friendly Barista handed me the coffee and was about to put a plastic spill cap on it when I said: "I won't need that, I'll be drinking it in." The response, a friendly but firm: "I am afraid I cannot give it to you without one, in case you spill it and sue me."
This is the power of anticipation. At every table people were sitting with a substantial number of wasted and unnecessary spill caps promptly removed by all the patrons. The idiocy of this could not be explained to her. The chances of spilling a porcelain cup of coffee is just as high if not higher but they have no problem serving that without the legal loophole, or is that a stopgap?

It reminded me of the monkeys and bananas scientific experiment. A group of monkeys were put through a behavioural experiment to better understand the cultural acquisition of a specific learnt response. The experiment starts off with 5 monkeys in a large cage. In the middle is a ladder, atop which are suspended a bunch of bananas (at this point I started getting suspicious but I stuck with it). The researchers would stand with hoses, ready to douse ALL the monkeys as soon as one attempted to climb the ladder. When the monkeys grabbed a banana, the researchers would spray everyone with extremely cold water. Apparently cold water is something that monkeys really don't like so they were soon conditioned not to take the bananas. After a short period of time not a single monkey attempted grabbing a banana. First objective achieved.
Then they started swapping out monkeys. A new unconditioned monkey is introduced, and a conditioned one is removed. It didn't take long for the new monkey to go for the ladder and the bananas. The others, in horror grabbed him, snarling teeth and all and beat the newcomer up. It doesn't take long for the new ones to conform. This cycle goes on and on, until eventually all the monkeys are replaced. Now you have a room full of monkey that won't touch the bananas and none of them really knows why. None of the new ones would have experienced the ice cold water.

This story was wonderfully narrated to me by Dominique to explain how corporate mythology can paralyse thinking and stop people taking personal responsibility by using the excuse that "it is the way we've always done things here." My take-away was also that anticipation has the ability to completely block our present moment awareness. We stop taking in data from our real experience because our expectations are so strong that we stop questioning and experimenting. This phenomena is well known in psychology as observer bias. In extreme cases the researchers will literally be blind to data that does not confirm their expectations. In such cases expectations reinforce our established views and we get self fulfilling prophecies.

So what does this mean for one of management's favourite sports quotes: "A good hockey player plays where the puck is. A great hockey players plays where the puck is going to be." Strategy is expectation. Anticipating and benefiting from what the competitive landscape will do in response to our actions is one of the things that sets great business leaders apart. For the best leaders this is not just an intellectual act of projection, but a real visceral emotion. The thrill of the hunt, blood rushing through flaring nostrils as the anticipation curve builds to frenzy.

Anticipation, as an emotion, engages our faculties with excitement, thrill and a real sense of feeling alive. The belief that the next hill is the last one to climb before we get the great Gin & Tonic of promotion, quickens the step and makes the extra effort easier to muster. Positive anticipation, like love, makes the world a more beautiful place. The subtle colour shifts in the sky become signs of the imminent spring. The second cup of coffee becomes proof that the client is on board. We interpret events in a momentum of good will.

Leaders as great story tellers are masters at harnessing the positive power of anticipation. Strumming up the symphony of hearts to march across the dessert to a promised land in song and celebration. (Or as prophets of doom, setting fire to the burning platform of fear and anxiety). Self help books from the Bible to the Secret have understood the pattern that anticipation governs intention. Intention guides attention and attention is the conduit of energy that shapes our actions, events and relationships to others. If my anticipation is driven by fear and anxiety the way I approach others and share ideas will be constrained by the need to protect myself. If however my anticipation is fuelled by a positive rush of acceptance, collaboration and growth, my actions will be more expansive. Anticipation becomes the ground tone to switch a melody into a particular key.

As a leader, how do you ensure that the sense of anticipation strikes the right balance between motivation and masticating monkeys? The heightened sense of 'next,' feeding off the clarity and presence of 'now.' Can you move beyond 'managing expectations,' built around the lowest common denominator of fear, to opening up the passion and 'shiver of antici..............pation'. Taking off the protective spill caps of fragile ego and seeding the celebration of cocktails all round.